Monday, May 18, 2009
Wednesday, April 22, 2009
April 2009 Skinny Update
Click here and get the Skinny on the April 2009 Twin Cities Housing Market:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eKGPtUsWvXo
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eKGPtUsWvXo
Dance Like Nobody's Watching
Weekly Market Activity Report
Hopeful signs of a Twin Cities housing market recovery carry on thanks to a combination of no growth in the spring supply of homes for sale and still-improving sales figures.
Helping to keep inventory down is slow new listing activity, a metric that has been sluggish all year. For the week ending April 11, there were 20.7 percent fewer new listings than there were during the same week in 2008. Pending sales are still trending in the opposite direction, up 21.9 percent in year-over-year numbers to 1,046 for the week. That's only the second week of 1,000-plus pending sales or more since May 2007. If these two metrics persist, the market could be in for some serious re-balancing.
With the Housing Affordability Index reaching 218—an increase of 40.8 percent over last year—it seems to be an awfully good time for buyers to get off the wall and on the dance floor...being mindful that 29.1 percent of the dance partners are lender-mediated.
Hopeful signs of a Twin Cities housing market recovery carry on thanks to a combination of no growth in the spring supply of homes for sale and still-improving sales figures.
Helping to keep inventory down is slow new listing activity, a metric that has been sluggish all year. For the week ending April 11, there were 20.7 percent fewer new listings than there were during the same week in 2008. Pending sales are still trending in the opposite direction, up 21.9 percent in year-over-year numbers to 1,046 for the week. That's only the second week of 1,000-plus pending sales or more since May 2007. If these two metrics persist, the market could be in for some serious re-balancing.
With the Housing Affordability Index reaching 218—an increase of 40.8 percent over last year—it seems to be an awfully good time for buyers to get off the wall and on the dance floor...being mindful that 29.1 percent of the dance partners are lender-mediated.
Sunday, April 5, 2009
There is a Silver Lining
For the week ending March 21, pending sales in the Twin Cities were 13.0 percent higher than the same week last year, while the number of new listings on the market was basically flat. Over the last three months, there have been approximately 1,200 more signed purchase agreements than there were a year ago and 3,000 fewer new listings. During this time, 58.1 percent of pending sales have been lender-mediated foreclosures and short sales, while 37.1 percent of new listings have been lender-mediated. The fact that the share of lender-mediated sales easily exceeds the share of new lender-mediated listings is a hopeful sign.
New buyers entering this market will be met with strong affordability but will have less to choose from compared to previous years. There are currently 26,064 homes for sale in the metro area, which is down 15.7 percent and 4,840 units from this time in 2008.
New buyers entering this market will be met with strong affordability but will have less to choose from compared to previous years. There are currently 26,064 homes for sale in the metro area, which is down 15.7 percent and 4,840 units from this time in 2008.
Thursday, March 12, 2009
Kiss The Blarney Stone
Weekly Market Activity Report
As we approach St. Patrick's Day, there's reason to take advantage of our Blarney Stone kisses and impart some eloquence (or "gift of gab" if you prefer). New listings continue to trail year-over-year numbers in our local housing market, coming in at 1,628 for the week ending February 28, which is 19.2 percent behind this week last year. Total active listings are roughly 5,000 below this time in 2008. In an oversupplied market, this is cause for celebration. Continued growth in home sales adds to the festive spirit, with pending sales showing a healthy 12.1 percent increase over the doldrumish numbers of last February.
There are several important monthly indicators to look at in this week's report. Days on Market Until Sale in February stood at 157 days, down 4.8 percent from last February. This is the third consecutive month of downward year-over-year movement. The Housing Affordability Index (HAI) continues its yearlong improvement with a March 2009 HAI of 206—31.2 percent ahead of its March 2008 mark of 157. Months Supply of Inventory is holding relatively steady at 7.8 months, down 15.2 percent from the mark of 9.2 months we saw a year ago.
According to John Tucillo, one of the foremost real estate economists in the U.S. and former Chief Economist for NAR, there are three necessary phases that must occur for the housing recovery to launch:
1) a decline in new listing activity
2) a decline in days on market
3) an increase in sale price to list price ratio
The first phase came about last summer and the second phase began in the fourth quarter of 2008. Hopefully the third phase will occur sometime this year. Strong affordability, improving chances for a housing recovery and a federal tax credit for first-time buyers equates to a welcome home-buying environment—a little Irish luck for real estate.
As we approach St. Patrick's Day, there's reason to take advantage of our Blarney Stone kisses and impart some eloquence (or "gift of gab" if you prefer). New listings continue to trail year-over-year numbers in our local housing market, coming in at 1,628 for the week ending February 28, which is 19.2 percent behind this week last year. Total active listings are roughly 5,000 below this time in 2008. In an oversupplied market, this is cause for celebration. Continued growth in home sales adds to the festive spirit, with pending sales showing a healthy 12.1 percent increase over the doldrumish numbers of last February.
There are several important monthly indicators to look at in this week's report. Days on Market Until Sale in February stood at 157 days, down 4.8 percent from last February. This is the third consecutive month of downward year-over-year movement. The Housing Affordability Index (HAI) continues its yearlong improvement with a March 2009 HAI of 206—31.2 percent ahead of its March 2008 mark of 157. Months Supply of Inventory is holding relatively steady at 7.8 months, down 15.2 percent from the mark of 9.2 months we saw a year ago.
According to John Tucillo, one of the foremost real estate economists in the U.S. and former Chief Economist for NAR, there are three necessary phases that must occur for the housing recovery to launch:
1) a decline in new listing activity
2) a decline in days on market
3) an increase in sale price to list price ratio
The first phase came about last summer and the second phase began in the fourth quarter of 2008. Hopefully the third phase will occur sometime this year. Strong affordability, improving chances for a housing recovery and a federal tax credit for first-time buyers equates to a welcome home-buying environment—a little Irish luck for real estate.
Monday, March 9, 2009
Where Is The Lone Ranger When We Need Him?
Did the stimulus package provide the "silver bullet" we were looking for to stimulate the real estate market? Well I think it will help but we needed more than a $8000 tax credit for first time buyers. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) estimates that the stimulus plan along with lower interest rates and other mortgage relief measures, could help trigger an additional 900,000 home sales in 2009. In 2008, the available tax credit for first time buyers was $7500 and had to be paid back over a 15 year period. The new $8000 credit is truly a credit and comes off your income tax with no re-payment provided you live in the home for more than three years.
With job losses mounting and more households feeling insecure about the future, sales growth will be held back. New listings in 2009 will be down compared to 2008 which will be a good thing. We should also see a decline in short sales and foreclosures in 2009. If foreclosures and short sales do begin to reach a price bottom this year, we can expect some month-to-month price stabilization in the overall market in the second half of the year.
There has been a lot of uncertainty in the housing market, but there is more cause for optimism heading into this year than there was last year. Mortgage rates have not been this low in decades. Financing is still available and with downpayments as low as 3.5 percent. Affordability is improved. Foreclosures are showing signs of reaching the downside of the peak. Home sales are finally on an upward trajectory. Inventory is in decline. This is all happening as we speak.
With job losses mounting and more households feeling insecure about the future, sales growth will be held back. New listings in 2009 will be down compared to 2008 which will be a good thing. We should also see a decline in short sales and foreclosures in 2009. If foreclosures and short sales do begin to reach a price bottom this year, we can expect some month-to-month price stabilization in the overall market in the second half of the year.
There has been a lot of uncertainty in the housing market, but there is more cause for optimism heading into this year than there was last year. Mortgage rates have not been this low in decades. Financing is still available and with downpayments as low as 3.5 percent. Affordability is improved. Foreclosures are showing signs of reaching the downside of the peak. Home sales are finally on an upward trajectory. Inventory is in decline. This is all happening as we speak.
Tuesday, February 10, 2009
Weekly Market Activity Report
Weekly Market Activity Report
For the week ending January 31, new listings continue at a lower level than seen last year, clocking in at 1,635—a 15.3 percent drop. Conversely, pending sales continue to raise sand with 673 recorded for this week's report—25 percent above last year. Basically, this is all welcome news. Having fewer listings on the market, combined with an increase in pending sales, helps to reduce the Months Supply of Inventory to 13.5 percent when compared to last year at this time—down from 8.9 to 7.7 months. This means it will take the current supply of houses for sale 7.7 months to sell (on average).The Percent of Original List Price Received at Sale continues to fall, with the January figure of 89.5 sitting at 1.6 percent less than 2008. It's important to consider sales prices of foreclosure homes and how they affect this figure.Our new Housing Affordability Index jumped to 202 in February. This is a new record and means that the median family income is 202 percent of what is necessary to qualify for the median-priced home. Again, we must consider how the sales prices in the lender-mediated market are affecting this figure, but we can say with some confidence that there are a number of very attractive buying opportunities in the local housing market. If we are able to maintain these trends, we'll be well on our way to killing the blues. And to this current market malaise, we'll be singing "gone, gone, gone (done moved on)."
For the week ending January 31, new listings continue at a lower level than seen last year, clocking in at 1,635—a 15.3 percent drop. Conversely, pending sales continue to raise sand with 673 recorded for this week's report—25 percent above last year. Basically, this is all welcome news. Having fewer listings on the market, combined with an increase in pending sales, helps to reduce the Months Supply of Inventory to 13.5 percent when compared to last year at this time—down from 8.9 to 7.7 months. This means it will take the current supply of houses for sale 7.7 months to sell (on average).The Percent of Original List Price Received at Sale continues to fall, with the January figure of 89.5 sitting at 1.6 percent less than 2008. It's important to consider sales prices of foreclosure homes and how they affect this figure.Our new Housing Affordability Index jumped to 202 in February. This is a new record and means that the median family income is 202 percent of what is necessary to qualify for the median-priced home. Again, we must consider how the sales prices in the lender-mediated market are affecting this figure, but we can say with some confidence that there are a number of very attractive buying opportunities in the local housing market. If we are able to maintain these trends, we'll be well on our way to killing the blues. And to this current market malaise, we'll be singing "gone, gone, gone (done moved on)."
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