Kiss The Blarney Stone

Weekly Market Activity Report

As we approach St. Patrick's Day, there's reason to take advantage of our Blarney Stone kisses and impart some eloquence (or "gift of gab" if you prefer). New listings continue to trail year-over-year numbers in our local housing market, coming in at 1,628 for the week ending February 28, which is 19.2 percent behind this week last year. Total active listings are roughly 5,000 below this time in 2008. In an oversupplied market, this is cause for celebration. Continued growth in home sales adds to the festive spirit, with pending sales showing a healthy 12.1 percent increase over the doldrumish numbers of last February.

There are several important monthly indicators to look at in this week's report. Days on Market Until Sale in February stood at 157 days, down 4.8 percent from last February. This is the third consecutive month of downward year-over-year movement. The Housing Affordability Index (HAI) continues its yearlong improvement with a March 2009 HAI of 206—31.2 percent ahead of its March 2008 mark of 157. Months Supply of Inventory is holding relatively steady at 7.8 months, down 15.2 percent from the mark of 9.2 months we saw a year ago.

According to John Tucillo, one of the foremost real estate economists in the U.S. and former Chief Economist for NAR, there are three necessary phases that must occur for the housing recovery to launch:

1) a decline in new listing activity
2) a decline in days on market
3) an increase in sale price to list price ratio

The first phase came about last summer and the second phase began in the fourth quarter of 2008. Hopefully the third phase will occur sometime this year. Strong affordability, improving chances for a housing recovery and a federal tax credit for first-time buyers equates to a welcome home-buying environment—a little Irish luck for real estate.

Where Is The Lone Ranger When We Need Him?

Did the stimulus package provide the "silver bullet" we were looking for to stimulate the real estate market? Well I think it will help but we needed more than a $8000 tax credit for first time buyers. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) estimates that the stimulus plan along with lower interest rates and other mortgage relief measures, could help trigger an additional 900,000 home sales in 2009. In 2008, the available tax credit for first time buyers was $7500 and had to be paid back over a 15 year period. The new $8000 credit is truly a credit and comes off your income tax with no re-payment provided you live in the home for more than three years.

With job losses mounting and more households feeling insecure about the future, sales growth will be held back. New listings in 2009 will be down compared to 2008 which will be a good thing. We should also see a decline in short sales and foreclosures in 2009. If foreclosures and short sales do begin to reach a price bottom this year, we can expect some month-to-month price stabilization in the overall market in the second half of the year.

There has been a lot of uncertainty in the housing market, but there is more cause for optimism heading into this year than there was last year. Mortgage rates have not been this low in decades. Financing is still available and with downpayments as low as 3.5 percent. Affordability is improved. Foreclosures are showing signs of reaching the downside of the peak. Home sales are finally on an upward trajectory. Inventory is in decline. This is all happening as we speak.